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DOES POPULATION SIZE MATTER?
The 2011 World Champions are New Zealand, population 4.4 million. Widely acknowledged as most exciting team of the tournament were Wales, population 3 million. In both countries, rugby is the major sport.
At the 2011 Rugby World Cup, the national populations of the competing countries varied enormously. At one extreme were countries with overall populations smaller than that of many western cities: Tonga (pop. 101,991) and Samoa (pop. 182,265). At the other end of the spectrum were Japan (pop. 127.9m), Russia (pop. 142.9m) and the USA (pop. 312.6m). Japan drew one game, Russia lost all their games and the USA only beat Russia. Tonga and Samoa won two games each and narrowly failed to make the quarter-finals.
The Pacific Islands have always been formidable competitors. It should not be forgotten that Samoa, then playing as Western Samoa, were good enough to beat Wales at Cardiff Arms Park 16-13 in 1991 (the joke then was “What would the score have been if the whole of Samoa had turned up?”). In 1994 Wales travelled to Western Samoa and were roundly thrashed 34-9. Samoa proved this was no fluke in 1999 by winning a rousing game at Cardiff’s new Millennium Stadium 38-31, scoring five tries. In 2009 Samoa were narrowly beaten 17-13 in Cardiff. Tonga have run Wales close in a number of games, losing to them 27-20 at the 2003 World Cup.
Fiji (pop. 850,000) reached the quarter-finals of the first Rugby World Cup and then lost to France. They lost 28-19 to France in Toulouse at the 1999 Rugby World Cup and 22-20 to Scotland at the 2003 Rugby World Cup. Fiji’s Sevens team have been a dominant force in the shorter form of the game, winning the Hong Kong Sevens 11 times and the Sevens World Cup twice.
So it’s safe to say that a large population is not critical to success. More important is a fanatical enthusiasm and the willingness to work hard to build a good team. At the end of the day it’s 15 men against 15 men. Tonga has 6,891 registered players, yet the national team beat France (pop. 65.8m) which has 302,000 players: Tonga 19-14 France. Rugby is still a game where the small guy can triumph!
